Mon Oct 26 to Sun Nov 1. The week’s weather across the lower 48 in one map and five short notes, free every Monday. Forecasts give odds, not certainties.
Automated draft; the forecaster’s read is added Monday morning.
The week in two sentences
The main system is a Canadian low (1007 hPa) over Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday; later in the week the GFS model shows a Pacific low (998 hPa) off Baja California on Sunday. The wettest ground in NOAA's seven-day total is Texas (1 to 2 inches), and highs run warmer than normal in New York, Atlanta, Chicago and Denver; colder than normal in Seattle.
Watch this
Severe storms are possible Monday: the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal risk centered on New Mexico. Watches and warnings come from your local NWS office.
Snow: the GFS model has snow falling over Idaho and Washington (Tuesday to Sunday) where NOAA's seven-day total reaches an inch or more of liquid.
Region by region
One anchor city stands in for each region. Highs are the week’s average against the 1991–2020 normal; rain days are those with a 40 percent chance or more in the NWS forecast; late week is the Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10 day odds.
Region
Highs
Rain
Best cloud day
Late week
NortheastNew York
68° +8° vs normal
Dry
Sat, about 48% cover
70% warmer
SoutheastAtlanta
75° +5° vs normal
Wet Sun (up to 41%)
Wed, about 50% cover
80% warmer, 40% wetter
Midwest and PlainsChicago
67° +11° vs normal
Wet Sat and Sun (up to 53%)
Wed, about 39% cover
80% warmer, 50% wetter
Rockies and SouthwestDenver
67° +7° vs normal
Wet Sun (up to 43%)
Fri, about 53% cover
40% warmer, 60% wetter
West CoastSeattle
53° -3° vs normal
Wet Mon, Tue, Wed and Thu (up to 90%)
Sat, about 55% cover
40% colder
Details for each region
Northeast New York
Arrives
A dry week in the forecast: rain chances stay under 20 percent.
Days
No day reaches a 40 percent chance
Temperature
Highs average 68 in New York, about 8 degrees above the late October normal: warmer than normal.
Plan around
Nothing to plan around. The most common daily forecast is sunny.
Best cloud day
Saturday, with about 48 percent sky cover in the afternoon.
Back half of the week (Sat Oct 31 to Wed Nov 4): the Climate Prediction Center gives New York a 70 percent chance of above normal temperatures and a 33 percent chance of above normal precipitation.
Southeast Atlanta
Arrives
Rain chances reach 41 percent Sunday.
Days
Sunday
Temperature
Highs average 75 in Atlanta, about 5 degrees above the late October normal: warmer than normal.
Plan around
A 41 percent rain chance on Sunday; otherwise a quiet week.
Best cloud day
Wednesday, with about 50 percent sky cover in the afternoon.
Back half of the week (Sat Oct 31 to Wed Nov 4): the Climate Prediction Center gives Atlanta an 80 percent chance of above normal temperatures and a 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation.
Highs average 67 in Chicago, about 11 degrees above the late October normal: warmer than normal.
Plan around
Saturday is the wettest day, with a 53 percent chance of rain.
Best cloud day
Wednesday, with about 39 percent sky cover in the afternoon.
Back half of the week (Sat Oct 31 to Wed Nov 4): the Climate Prediction Center gives Chicago an 80 percent chance of above normal temperatures and a 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation.
Rockies and Southwest Denver
Arrives
Rain chances reach 43 percent Sunday.
Days
Sunday
Temperature
Highs average 67 in Denver, about 7 degrees above the late October normal: warmer than normal.
Plan around
A 43 percent rain chance on Sunday; otherwise a quiet week.
Best cloud day
Friday, with about 53 percent sky cover in the afternoon.
Back half of the week (Sat Oct 31 to Wed Nov 4): the Climate Prediction Center gives Denver a 40 percent chance of above normal temperatures and a 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation.
Highs average 53 in Seattle, about 3 degrees below the late October normal: colder than normal.
Plan around
Wednesday is the wettest day, with a 90 percent chance of rain.
Best cloud day
Saturday, with about 55 percent sky cover in the afternoon.
Back half of the week (Sat Oct 31 to Wed Nov 4): the Climate Prediction Center gives Seattle a 40 percent chance of below normal temperatures.
Sky notes for journal keepers
Moon: Full moon on Mon Oct 26 and last quarter on Sun Nov 1.
Best cloud-watching day: Wednesday in Atlanta (Southeast), with about 50 percent sky cover in the afternoon, enough cloud to name and enough blue to see it against.
Clearest night for the moon among the five cities: Monday night in New York, about 7 percent sky cover.
Room for all of it in the journals: the Cloud Journal for the cloud day, the Moon Journal for the clear night.
This week in the sky and on the ground
The Hunter's Moon is full Monday at 12:13 am Eastern (Sunday evening on the West Coast). It rises around sunset Monday: 5:58 pm in New York, 6:59 pm in Atlanta, 5:51 pm in Chicago, 6:08 pm in Denver, 5:54 pm in Seattle, every one within 10 minutes of sundown. Tuesday it rises only about 40 minutes later, so the big low moon is back in the twilight a second evening. Tonight's moon
The Southern Taurids are building toward their Nov 5 peak: only a few an hour, but slow and rich in fireballs. The bright moon early this week hides all but the fireballs. By the peak the moon is a thin dawn crescent and out of the way, so the sky is dark. Planets tonight
Daylight: Seattle loses 22 minutes of it this week, Monday to Monday; Atlanta only 13. Sunset Monday in Seattle is 6:01 pm. Field almanac
Sunday the clocks go back an hour, and sunset lands an hour earlier on Monday: 4:51 pm in New York. The light comes back in the morning for a while. Field almanac
Fall color: near peak this week across South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Washington (about 75 percent of their counties); past peak over New England and the upper Midwest. Tree tracker
On the ground: sandhill cranes are moving south and juncos are back at the feeders. The November pages are up for every state, ten things to look for in each. Nature this month
Forecasts give odds, not certainties. For watches and warnings see weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA. Data: NOAA Weather Prediction Center (fronts for Monday and Tuesday, seven-day rain totals), National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center (days 1 to 8) and the NOAA GFS model (lows and highs for Wednesday to Sunday, read from Unidata’s THREDDS server); built Mon Oct 26, 03:14 UTC.
