Field tools

Seasonal outlook: the next three months

Our own three-month temperature and precipitation outlook for every climate division in the lower 48, issued monthly and checked against what actually happened. Seasonal forecasts tilt the odds rather than predict the weather, so every past outlook stays up beside its verification. Data through August 2026.

How it has done

Temperature, 18 seasons

75%

of calls verified; 3% came out the opposite way

Precipitation, 18 seasons

50%

of calls verified; 18% came out the opposite way

A blind guess

33%

of calls would verify, and 33% would come out the opposite way

A call is a lean of 40% or more toward one of the three categories. Over the longer test period 2012–2025, this method verified 59% of temperature calls (13% opposite) and 49% of precipitation calls (19% opposite); the official NOAA outlook scored 59% (14%) and 45% (24%) on the same seasons and places. 2025 and 2026 were unusually warm across the country, which makes warm calls verify more often than the long-run rate.

How to read the maps

Each season is compared with the 1991–2020 normal for that place and time of year, split into thirds: below normal, near normal, above normal. The forecast map shows which way the odds lean and by how much (dark red: a strong lean toward above-normal temperature; dark brown: toward below-normal precipitation; grey: no lean). The observed map shows which third the season actually landed in. “Verified” means the favoured third happened; “opposite” means the other extreme did.

Current outlooks

NDJ 2026-27

issued September 2026, lead 1.5 months · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, NDJ 2026-27

Temperature

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Precipitation

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

OND 2026

issued September 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, OND 2026

Temperature

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Precipitation

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

SON 2026

issued August 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, SON 2026

Temperature

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Precipitation

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

ASO 2026

issued July 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, ASO 2026

Temperature

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Precipitation

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

JAS 2026

issued June 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JAS 2026

Temperature

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Precipitation

Verification comes when the season’s observations are in.

Past outlooks and how they verified

JJA 2026

issued May 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JJA 2026

Temperature

93% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 98% of the country · observed: 0% below, 9% near, 91% above normal

Precipitation

40% of calls verified · 20% came out the opposite way · calls made over 45% of the country · observed: 43% below, 40% near, 16% above normal

MJJ 2026

issued April 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, MJJ 2026

Temperature

79% of calls verified · 1% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 1% below, 21% near, 77% above normal

Precipitation

47% of calls verified · 17% came out the opposite way · calls made over 46% of the country · observed: 47% below, 35% near, 18% above normal

AMJ 2026

issued March 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, AMJ 2026

Temperature

84% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 98% of the country · observed: 0% below, 17% near, 83% above normal

Precipitation

46% of calls verified · 21% came out the opposite way · calls made over 36% of the country · observed: 41% below, 32% near, 27% above normal

MAM 2026

issued February 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, MAM 2026

Temperature

96% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 95% of the country · observed: 0% below, 5% near, 95% above normal

Precipitation

64% of calls verified · 6% came out the opposite way · calls made over 37% of the country · observed: 57% below, 24% near, 20% above normal

FMA 2026

issued January 2026, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, FMA 2026

Temperature

87% of calls verified · 3% came out the opposite way · calls made over 85% of the country · observed: 0% below, 6% near, 94% above normal

Precipitation

75% of calls verified · 10% came out the opposite way · calls made over 49% of the country · observed: 63% below, 20% near, 17% above normal

JFM 2026

issued December 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JFM 2026

Temperature

70% of calls verified · 7% came out the opposite way · calls made over 81% of the country · observed: 1% below, 15% near, 84% above normal

Precipitation

60% of calls verified · 12% came out the opposite way · calls made over 82% of the country · observed: 79% below, 17% near, 4% above normal

DJF 2025-26

issued November 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, DJF 2025-26

Temperature

60% of calls verified · 9% came out the opposite way · calls made over 82% of the country · observed: 14% below, 20% near, 66% above normal

Precipitation

61% of calls verified · 12% came out the opposite way · calls made over 73% of the country · observed: 66% below, 25% near, 9% above normal

NDJ 2025-26

issued October 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, NDJ 2025-26

Temperature

67% of calls verified · 7% came out the opposite way · calls made over 83% of the country · observed: 15% below, 22% near, 64% above normal

Precipitation

63% of calls verified · 11% came out the opposite way · calls made over 72% of the country · observed: 59% below, 28% near, 13% above normal

OND 2025

issued September 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, OND 2025

Temperature

80% of calls verified · 6% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 7% below, 14% near, 80% above normal

Precipitation

62% of calls verified · 14% came out the opposite way · calls made over 85% of the country · observed: 52% below, 23% near, 25% above normal

SON 2025

issued August 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, SON 2025

Temperature

85% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 96% of the country · observed: 0% below, 13% near, 86% above normal

Precipitation

53% of calls verified · 14% came out the opposite way · calls made over 72% of the country · observed: 48% below, 28% near, 24% above normal

ASO 2025

issued July 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, ASO 2025

Temperature

83% of calls verified · 4% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 4% below, 13% near, 83% above normal

Precipitation

49% of calls verified · 16% came out the opposite way · calls made over 64% of the country · observed: 38% below, 36% near, 26% above normal

JAS 2025

issued June 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JAS 2025

Temperature

73% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 0% below, 29% near, 70% above normal

Precipitation

24% of calls verified · 43% came out the opposite way · calls made over 38% of the country · observed: 39% below, 31% near, 30% above normal

JJA 2025

issued May 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JJA 2025

Temperature

56% of calls verified · 2% came out the opposite way · calls made over 97% of the country · observed: 2% below, 39% near, 59% above normal

Precipitation

30% of calls verified · 31% came out the opposite way · calls made over 61% of the country · observed: 33% below, 40% near, 27% above normal

MJJ 2025

issued April 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, MJJ 2025

Temperature

65% of calls verified · 4% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 4% below, 25% near, 71% above normal

Precipitation

35% of calls verified · 34% came out the opposite way · calls made over 72% of the country · observed: 27% below, 28% near, 45% above normal

AMJ 2025

issued March 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, AMJ 2025

Temperature

73% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 99% of the country · observed: 0% below, 24% near, 75% above normal

Precipitation

36% of calls verified · 37% came out the opposite way · calls made over 67% of the country · observed: 30% below, 30% near, 40% above normal

MAM 2025

issued February 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, MAM 2025

Temperature

76% of calls verified · 5% came out the opposite way · calls made over 76% of the country · observed: 0% below, 17% near, 83% above normal

Precipitation

22% of calls verified · 32% came out the opposite way · calls made over 58% of the country · observed: 20% below, 41% near, 39% above normal

FMA 2025

issued January 2025, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, FMA 2025

Temperature

85% of calls verified · 0% came out the opposite way · calls made over 77% of the country · observed: 3% below, 34% near, 63% above normal

Precipitation

57% of calls verified · 5% came out the opposite way · calls made over 62% of the country · observed: 32% below, 38% near, 30% above normal

JFM 2025

issued December 2024, lead 0.5 month · Same method, data as of issue date

Maps of the forecast lean and, when available, the observed outcome for temperature and precipitation, JFM 2025

Temperature

28% of calls verified · 7% came out the opposite way · calls made over 78% of the country · observed: 18% below, 73% near, 9% above normal

Precipitation

58% of calls verified · 10% came out the opposite way · calls made over 74% of the country · observed: 57% below, 30% near, 12% above normal